Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 30.580995 34.191752 38.372210 43.651570 50.264980 58.457895 6.969139e+01
2025-03-30 25.462484 29.929857 35.589606 43.564805 55.042675 71.993716 1.015051e+02
2025-04-06 21.811447 26.488401 32.784580 42.388683 57.816159 84.468863 1.443457e+02
2025-04-13 20.276110 25.415814 32.767054 44.963410 67.199581 114.370716 2.763592e+02
2025-04-20 18.398303 23.516650 31.122643 44.465943 71.105944 137.948645 5.082175e+02
2025-04-27 17.109813 22.256466 30.176417 44.827466 76.898330 174.493348 1.487151e+03
2025-05-04 16.099777 21.263667 29.458722 45.372418 83.476589 227.544161 1.133088e+06
2025-05-11 15.191523 20.311254 28.642984 45.497152 89.223090 296.654234 NaN
2025-05-18 14.286796 19.266995 27.517873 44.713958 92.157302 367.789574 NaN
2025-05-25 13.635706 18.565272 26.897101 44.864490 98.229163 512.248539 NaN
2025-06-01 12.998927 17.829202 26.121311 44.495526 102.534553 709.132920 NaN
2025-06-08 12.402042 17.111549 25.298835 43.851312 105.630349 993.618820 NaN
2025-06-15 11.862385 16.459931 24.550085 43.287997 109.119372 1550.623038 NaN
2025-06-22 11.395869 15.901240 23.925227 42.924588 113.531514 3050.039275 NaN
2025-06-29 10.877205 15.221268 23.006302 41.654080 113.087818 5132.894617 NaN
2025-07-06 10.771146 15.244684 23.462446 44.090458 134.079992 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 10.396473 14.772515 22.881187 43.580217 138.482205 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.125606 14.467885 22.613595 43.916214 149.170548 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.889443 14.210678 22.419732 44.436290 162.568547 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.637871 13.911172 22.110760 44.553739 173.732805 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.337630 13.508183 21.551219 43.795935 176.703134 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.123079 13.251704 21.287446 43.940698 189.283642 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 8.886646 12.943758 20.889574 43.583994 196.796001 NaN NaN